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On the very date Donald Trump was presented with a tailor-made "peace prize" from his newest friend, FIFA president "Gianni" Infantino, his government released an similarly ostentatious national security strategy. This fairly short paper is saturated with the essence of Trump and Trumpism. It opens with the characteristically humble claim that the president has brought back "the United States and the globe – back from the edge of catastrophe and disaster."

Even though the strategy largely codifies the current policies and statements of Trump and his team, it must be taken as a serious warning for the international community, and for the European continent in particular.

A Strategy of Intervention and Cultural Fear

The document espouses an aggressive form of foreign-policy interference where the US explicitly sets the goal of "fostering European strength." Its rhetoric could have been taken directly from speeches by the Hungarian Prime Minister during the much-discussed refugee crisis of 2015-16: "We want Europe to stay European, to reclaim its civilizational self-assurance." More ominously, the document claims that Europe's "economic decline is overshadowed by the real and starker prospect of cultural extinction."

The whole section dedicated to Europe is imbued with generations of European right-wing ideology and rhetoric. The EU and its migration policies are blamed for "changing the continent and creating strife, suppression of free speech and stifling of dissent, cratering birthrates, and loss of national identities and self-confidence." According to the document, if "present trends continue, the continent will be unrecognizable in 20 years or less. As such, it is not at all clear whether some European countries will have economies and militaries powerful enough to remain reliable allies." In fact, the Trump administration believes that "within a few decades at the latest, some NATO members will become majority non-European."

"American diplomacy should continue to champion authentic democracy, freedom of expression, and proud commemorations of European nations’ unique heritage and history."

Foundational Ideas of the Right-Wing

These points carry strong overtones of two theories seen as core for modern far-right circles. The first is Oswald Spengler's "The Decline of the West," whose argument on the inevitable fall of civilizations was employed by the German far right to criticise the "perversion" and "enfeeblement" of the democratic Weimar Republic. The second is "The Great Replacement," released in 2011 by French novelist Renaud Camus, who translated long-existing "indigenous" fears into a more overt conspiratorial narrative, alleging European elites of using immigration to substitute rebellious "native" populations and import a more submissive and dependent electorate.

It is the nationalist fever dream encapsulated in both ideas that gives the Trump administration the authority, if not the obligation, to interfere in European affairs, the document suggests. And it is clear where it sees its allies: "The United States encourages its political allies in Europe to advance this revival of spirit, and the increasing clout of patriotic European parties in fact gives cause for great optimism."

The Objective: "Restore European Greatness"

Put simply, the US contends that it is essential to its national security to "Restore European strength," and that the European far right is the only political force that can achieve this. Therefore, its "overarching strategy for Europe" prioritises "fostering resistance to Europe’s current trajectory within European nations" – meaning the far right – and "building up the robust nations of central, eastern, and southern Europe" – specifically "aligned countries that want to reclaim their past glory" – such as Hungary and Italy.

While the document remains unclear on implementation, it is apparent that a key aim is to pressure Europe to adopt a sweeping policy on freedom of speech, more aligned with the US model – particularly regarding far-right speech – and not limited to social media. Another is to normalise relations with Russia; or, as the document calls it, to "restore strategic stability with Russia." Although the country is not directly called a future ally, the Trump administration evidently does not treat Russia as an enemy either.

An Ideological Precedent: The Monroe Doctrine

In a broader sense, the national security strategy takes its inspiration less from the idealized US of the 1950s and more from the 1823 policy of 1823. Articulated by President James Monroe, this cautioned European powers not to interfere in the "western hemisphere," which he proclaimed to be the US’s sphere of interest. The Trump administration’s policy document promises to "implement a Trump corollary" to the Monroe Doctrine, which entails the US "enlisting" countries worldwide that wish to help protect US national interests.

None of this is necessarily new – consider JD Vance’s address at the 2025 Munich Security Conference, where the vice-president unleashed an assault on Europe’s democratic model. But perhaps now that it is laid out in an formal document, European leaders will at last understand that the situation is grave. And if the document is too long or imprecise for them, it can be condensed in clear and concise terms: the current US government holds that its national security is best served by the demise of liberal democracy in Europe. In other words, the US is not only an reluctant ally; it is a willing adversary. Now is time to respond accordingly.