Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has got something to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
